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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue of $857.5M modestly beat consensus*, while Adjusted EBITDA of $177.6M topped Street*, but diluted EPS of $0.40 was below consensus*; attendance fell 10% YoY on a lighter release slate .
  • Cinemark achieved record third‑quarter domestic market share, scaled alternative content to 16% of domestic box office, and set a third‑quarter domestic concession per cap record of $8.20, underscoring durable pricing, format, and programming advantages .
  • Balance sheet and capital allocation catalysts: all remaining COVID‑related debt and associated warrants fully extinguished; Board authorized a new $300M share repurchase and increased the quarterly dividend 12.5% to $0.09, payable Dec 12 (record Nov 28) .
  • Management expects a robust holiday slate to drive Q4 margin recovery; 2025 CapEx target maintained at $225M with heavier Q4 weighting, and 2026 CapEx likely above 2025 given ROI opportunities .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record third‑quarter domestic market share and alternative content scaled to 16% of domestic box office; “we achieved our highest third‑quarter domestic market share in our company's history” .
  • Per‑cap fundamentals strong: “we also achieved a new third‑quarter domestic food and beverage per cap record of $8.20” .
  • Strategic and capital allocation milestones: “we have settled the final outstanding warrants… fully extinguishing the remaining portion of our COVID‑related debt” and “authorized a new $300 million stock repurchase program and an increase of our dividend to $0.36 per annum” (annualized) .

What Went Wrong

  • Softer slate drove 10% YoY decline in attendance (54.2M) and a 7% YoY decline in revenue; Adjusted EBITDA fell versus Q3 2024 (from $220.5M to $177.6M) despite operational outperformance .
  • Concession costs rose 190 bps to 19.5% of concession revenue on timing of rebates, lower‑margin merchandise mix, and inflation .
  • Other cost headwinds: elevated utilities/repairs as deferred maintenance is addressed; G&A up on wage/benefits, strategic headcount, cloud software, and share‑based comp .

Financial Results

P&L and Operating Trends (chronological: Q1 → Q2 → Q3)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$540.7 $940.5 $857.5
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.32) $0.63 $0.40
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$36.4 $232.2 $177.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)6.7% 24.7% 20.7%
Attendance (Millions)36.6 57.9 54.2
Worldwide Avg Ticket ($)$7.22 $8.07 $7.93
Concession Revenue per Patron ($)$5.75 $6.52 $6.21
Domestic Concession Per Cap ($)$7.98 $8.34 $8.20

Q3 2025 vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025YoY ChangeQ2 2025QoQ Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)$921.8 $857.5 −$64.3 (−7.0%)$940.5 −$83.0 (−8.8%)
Diluted EPS ($)$1.19 $0.40 −$0.79$0.63 −$0.23
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$220.5 $177.6 −$42.9 (−19.4%)$232.2 −$54.6 (−23.5%)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)23.9% (calc)20.7% −320 bps24.7% −400 bps

Segment Breakdown – Q3 2025

SegmentAdmissions ($M)Concession ($M)Other ($M)Total Revenue ($M)Attendance (M)Avg Ticket ($)Concession/Patron ($)
U.S.$348.5 $272.4 $62.7 $683.6 33.2 $10.50 $8.20
International$81.2 $64.3 $28.4 $173.9 21.0 $3.87 $3.06
Consolidated$429.7 $336.7 $91.1 $857.5 54.2 $7.93 $6.21

Estimates Versus Actuals

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions, Q3 2025)$841.0*$857.5 +$16.5 (+2.0%)
Primary EPS (Q3 2025)$0.46*$0.40 (diluted) −$0.06 (−13%)
EBITDA ($USD Millions, Q3 2025)$168.0*$177.6 (Adj. EBITDA) +$9.6 (+5.7%)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Quarterly DividendOngoing$0.08 (prior declaration) $0.09 per share; payable Dec 12, record Nov 28 Raised
Share Repurchase AuthorizationProgramNone explicit$300M authorized repurchase program commencing Nov 7, 2025 New
CapExFY 2025Target ~$225M (maintained) ~$225M; heavier Q4 weighting; timing subject to projects Maintained
CapExFY 2026N/ALikely above 2025; details in Feb call Indicated Increase
Net Leverage TargetOngoing2–3x target 2–3x target; ended Q3 at ~2.4x Maintained
Debt Maturity ProfileOngoingConvert due Aug 2025Convert repaid; nearest maturity in 2028 Improved

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Alternative Content (anime, faith-based, music)Building momentum; non‑trad content >10% of box office; record D‑BOX revenues in Q2 16% of domestic box office; second‑highest quarterly non‑traditional box office ever Expanding
Premium Formats (XD, D‑BOX, ScreenX, IMAX)Q2: record XD/D‑BOX revenues IMAX agreement to add/upgrade IMAX with Laser and activate three IMAX 70mm systems Expanding
Market Share & Pricing AnalyticsStructural share gains >100 bps vs pre‑pandemic (Q1–Q2) Highest Q3 domestic share; data‑driven pricing and scheduling continue to drive outperformance Improving
Theatrical WindowsOngoing evaluation; varied windows post‑pandemicConcern around <30–45 day windows impacting smaller titles and casual moviegoers; continued dialogue with studios Active Discussion
Capital Allocation (Debt, Buyback, Dividend)Q1: reinstated dividend; $200M buyback; preparing to settle converts Warrants settled; convert fully addressed; $300M buyback and dividend to $0.09 Strengthening
Latin America TrendsShare gains; robust international concessions per caps (Q2) Record performances (Conjuring, Demon Slayer) and successful cinema weeks supporting intl margins Solid

Management Commentary

  • “As of today, we have settled the final outstanding warrants related to our convertible notes, thereby fully extinguishing the remaining portion of our COVID‑related debt… our board of directors just authorized a new $300 million stock repurchase program and an increase of our dividend to $0.36 per annum.” — Sean Gamble, CEO .
  • “We delivered worldwide revenue of $857.5 million and $177.6 million of adjusted EBITDA. This resulted in a healthy adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7%… we welcomed 54.2 million guests across our global footprint, a 10% decrease year over year.” — Melissa Thomas, CFO .
  • “Altogether, alternative content accounted for a significant 16% of our domestic box office in the quarter. We also achieved a new third‑quarter domestic food and beverage per cap record of $8.20.” — Sean Gamble .
  • Brand positioning: first‑ever comprehensive brand campaign “It’s Show Time” to spotlight Cinemark’s differentiated experience ahead of broader 2026 rollout .

Q&A Highlights

  • CapEx outlook: 2026 CapEx likely above 2025 given ROI pipeline and deferred maintenance; specifics to be provided in February .
  • M&A appetite: disciplined approach focused on high‑quality assets and deepening presence where Cinemark has infrastructure; pipeline consistent but not accelerating .
  • Theatrical windows: increasing concern that highly shortened windows (<30–45 days) may dampen attendance recovery for smaller titles/casual moviegoers; ongoing studio dialogue .
  • Pricing strategy: data‑driven optimization for tickets and concessions with elasticity monitoring; aim to maximize attendance/box office while maintaining value perception .
  • Dividend framework: sustainable and growing dividend, balanced with buybacks and leverage/liquidity priorities; holistic capital returns approach .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat consensus by ~2%; Adjusted EBITDA exceeded Street’s EBITDA consensus by ~6%; diluted EPS was below consensus (Street tracks “Primary EPS”). Management’s GAAP diluted EPS was $0.40 vs consensus $0.46. The beat/miss mix reflects lower attendance offset by strong per caps, format mix, and cost discipline .
  • Q2 2025: Revenue slightly missed; EPS missed; EBITDA exceeded Street*, consistent with strong summer slate and format mix .
  • Q1 2025: Revenue beat; EPS missed; Adjusted EBITDA above Street’s EBITDA consensus during a soft slate as the industry emerged from strike effects .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cinemark’s operational advantages (pricing analytics, programming, premium formats) continue to drive structural market share gains and strong per caps, partially offsetting slate softness .
  • Capital allocation catalysts (debt fully cleaned up, $300M buyback, dividend increase) improve equity story and flexibility; nearest debt maturity 2028, net leverage ~2.4x within 2–3x target .
  • Alternative content is a durable growth vector (16% of domestic box office in Q3) that diversifies revenue beyond traditional studio slates .
  • Near‑term setup: robust holiday slate and expected Q4 box office recovery should support margin improvement despite some utility/maintenance headwinds .
  • Medium‑term: 2026–2027 pipeline looks stronger (volume scaling, premium format upgrades including IMAX with Laser and 70mm), supporting attendance and monetization .
  • Watch list for 2026: CapEx likely up from 2025; continued dialogue on theatrical windows may influence performance of mid‑tier titles .
  • Trading lens: consider the mix of a slight Q3 EPS miss versus stronger cash generation, de‑risked balance sheet, and new buyback authorization as supportive for sentiment into a stronger Q4 slate .

Additional Q3 2025 Materials

  • Press release: earnings results summary and investor call details .
  • Brand campaign launch “It’s Show Time” to spotlight service/technology/amenities .
  • IMAX agreement to expand/upgrade IMAX with Laser and add IMAX 70mm systems across Cinemark locations .